Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Fuck variance!

Ok, feb went well for me (i might post bout feb and march together soon). I just wanted to post about my 30k hands in 6 days challenge (at 200nl 6max). I've been running like god this year- at worst some break even stetches- but i've been slapped in the face by the cards repeatedly during this challenge.

I thought bout quiting the challenge because i have been 12 tabling and its easy to believe i am just playing well below par. However, reading jimmys posts have inspired me to say "FUCK VARIANCE, U MUGGY ****!" and i'm play through it. I think playin my B game, 12 tabling, and without major monkey tilt, i can still beat 200nl. Soooo, i'm gonna continue to play it til i do, so there could be an extension added to this challenge at the end of the week.

Negatives - First downswing of the year
Positives - I get bored with poker when im winning easily, so this has made me work harder

Cliffnotes - Fuck variance

Keep at the grind Jimmy!

Thursday, March 13, 2008

Day 7

Fuck u poker, -$13,249 in 1239 hands. $3226 of that at 10/20 in 130 hands when i sat in a super juicy game and got flush v flush, nut flush vs rivered boat and other random bullshit. I just cannot win a hand at that limit. Anyway, ran like absolute dogshit at 5/10 as well, came across the biggest fish I've ever seen on any site on Fulltilt. With about 95% frequency, when checked to, he would either bet full pot or overbet shove no matter how small the pot. Also he would call allins when shoved on with complete air if it was only a few hundred more. Lost 3.5k on that table - Kind of thin shove for the last $700 of 2 buyins, him hitting a flush allin on turn, retarded gayness hand.
Some interesting hands went down on Party, me trying to bluff mark but he has a set, slowrolled obv. Me turning top pair into a bluff cos I was 99% sure he had aces by his timing tells, damn his call. Running into aces. Margik running like god as always. Margik running like god again. Prob a bad call vs a 34/27.

Whatever, I hate this game

Blogged with the Flock Browser

Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Getting back to even: Day 6

Today was a very good day, made $11,750 in 3186 hands for my best day at 5/10 so far. Only down 4 figures for the month now which is nice! Nothing like a good downswing to improve your work ethic i have to say - 22k hands in 11 days puts me on track for playing more hands this month than any other.
Blogged with the Flock Browser

Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Getting back to even: Day 2,3,4,5

Since my last post, I've played 10,157 hands. I was up 2.6k, after about 300 of those hands, then went on a 15 buyin downswing for the next 8000 hands and then a 13 buyin upswing in my last 2000 hands, so $1644 better off than i was and still a long way from even for the month. Not great for sure but very happy right now after a sick few days.

Blogged with Flock

Friday, March 07, 2008

Getting back to even: Day 1

Was nice to be back at 5/10 today and actually hit some pairs! Played 3500 hands, was up $10,774 after 3000 hands and had stopped playing but I realised I was only 100bbs away from Chubb's STA record for the year of 1171bbs in a day so fired the tables back up and dropped nearly 5 buyins (obv) to end the day up $6150. Good start to the rebuild.

Blogged with Flock

Thursday, March 06, 2008

Big downswing

Normally when I make a post about my poker results it tends to be when I'm on a downswing because it helps me clarify things in my mind to write them down. This post is no exception. Moved up to $2000 and $3000 buyin games on March 1st and saw some variance like I can't remember ever seeing before. Day 1, best day ever, +$9000. Day 2, worst day ever (not by much), -$10,000. Day 3, worst day ever (by a long way), -$26,000 in 2800 hands running about $20,000 below allin expectation for the day according to PokerEV. Anyway, including tournaments I'm currently down $27635 for the month, and $37,166 since Monday, around 30% of my bankroll, which, both in monetary and net worth terms, feels pretty sick.
I'm currently down $41,169 this year at the higher stakes in 7750 hands. There are a few things I can take from this though.

1) 20+ buyin downswings are absolutely standard when you mostly get all the money with a very small edge. Long term with my game as it has been over those hands I'd expect to be at least a breakeven player. I could just as easily be up $40,000 over this amount of hands which is so sick that I could be anywhere in an $80,000 margin in like 20 hours of play.
2) As a "pro", I don't think I should be exposing myself to this sort of variance in my bankroll. My next shot at $2000 buyin games will be when/if I have a $200,000 bankroll, hopefully in a few months.

Anyway, I'm moving back down to $1000NL so it's gonna take a while to grind back the $27k im down for the month. I'm gonna try to play as many hands as I can for the rest of the month and right now I'll be very happy if I make anything at all this month. The sick thing about variance is that it has no memory and I'm just as likely to lose 20 buyins in my next 10,000 hands as I was in my last 10,000 hands! Hopefully I start running better tho and I'm going to try to put some results up for the rest of the month to give me a bit of motivation.

Blogged with Flock