Thursday, March 06, 2008

Big downswing

Normally when I make a post about my poker results it tends to be when I'm on a downswing because it helps me clarify things in my mind to write them down. This post is no exception. Moved up to $2000 and $3000 buyin games on March 1st and saw some variance like I can't remember ever seeing before. Day 1, best day ever, +$9000. Day 2, worst day ever (not by much), -$10,000. Day 3, worst day ever (by a long way), -$26,000 in 2800 hands running about $20,000 below allin expectation for the day according to PokerEV. Anyway, including tournaments I'm currently down $27635 for the month, and $37,166 since Monday, around 30% of my bankroll, which, both in monetary and net worth terms, feels pretty sick.
I'm currently down $41,169 this year at the higher stakes in 7750 hands. There are a few things I can take from this though.

1) 20+ buyin downswings are absolutely standard when you mostly get all the money with a very small edge. Long term with my game as it has been over those hands I'd expect to be at least a breakeven player. I could just as easily be up $40,000 over this amount of hands which is so sick that I could be anywhere in an $80,000 margin in like 20 hours of play.
2) As a "pro", I don't think I should be exposing myself to this sort of variance in my bankroll. My next shot at $2000 buyin games will be when/if I have a $200,000 bankroll, hopefully in a few months.

Anyway, I'm moving back down to $1000NL so it's gonna take a while to grind back the $27k im down for the month. I'm gonna try to play as many hands as I can for the rest of the month and right now I'll be very happy if I make anything at all this month. The sick thing about variance is that it has no memory and I'm just as likely to lose 20 buyins in my next 10,000 hands as I was in my last 10,000 hands! Hopefully I start running better tho and I'm going to try to put some results up for the rest of the month to give me a bit of motivation.

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